Putin’s Succession Problem
The cult of personality being built by Vladimir Putin in the Russian State is not conducive to a successful succession of power. Therefore, unless he publicly begins grooming a successor in his image soon, there will be an absolute or near total political collapse and power vacuum in Russia upon his death in 20-odd years or less.
There are two types of political power derivations:
- The Cult Of Personality.
Where upon a people are persuaded to endow power in a leader based upon a larger-than-life image of a single living individual. That man or woman consolidates all power of the State entirely around their identity, they are the living and breathing representation of the State, and the faith of citizens in their political state is a faith in the power of that living individual. In this case, the State is the Prince.
2. Concept-As-Deity.
In this alternative, a singular figure is also endowed with the faith of the people, but instead of a consolidation of power around the person, that faith is transferred to a belief in a principle of some kind, an ideal, which is represented by the symbol of that leader’s character. All power is not structured around the living person, but rather around the idea. The leader is merely a conduit: faith in the leader means faith in the direction of the state towards that ideal. In this case the State is the Principle, not the Prince.
These two options pose a critical difference: the possibility of continuation beyond the leader. When the leader at the center of each kind of state ceases to be a part of the daily operations and decisions of that state, two possibilities ensue. In the first, a successful Cult Of Personality state, that state loses its center, whereas in the second, a successful Concept-As-Deity state, it doesn’t and rather can continue on its initial development.
Why?
A state whose beating heart is a physical blood pumping organ will die when that blood ceases to flow. In the case of a state whose beating heart is something immortal, a principle or ideal, it is irrelevant whether the blood-pumping heart of its mortal leader stops. Rather, the death of that leader, one who has ascended to the status of a symbol, can actually serve as the keystone in the foundation of the state. That which is dead, but still alive in concept, cannot be corrupted or stumble.
Can a Cult Of Personality become a Concept As Deity state? Yes, of course. The Cult Of Personality is a pre-ascension form of the latter. A good example of this is North Korea. In the case of Putin’s Russia, it is very much still in the former.
The key step to achieving a Concept As Deity state, and this achieving successful post-mortality perpetuation, is the establishment of a line of inheritance — be it figurative or literal — for a successor, and for the citizenry. This is why North Korea makes a good example of a state which achieved a quick ascension into a stable perpetual political state via a literal line of inheritance under a mostly Cult Of Personality form. The establishment of a literal living deity in the form of the “Supreme Leader” via a bloodline bridged the hurdle.
Putin, however, has not established any such mechanisms for such an inheritance, literal or figurative, nor has he appeared to make any moves towards beginning such a cultivation. The easiest way to go about this would be to follow in North Korea’s footsteps and generate a public perception of a common character between himself and a descendant. As such, while his daughters have begun to take on public personas, their familial connection to Putin is not officially acknowledged nor reinforced.
Does Putin need to establish a perpetuation within his Russian state? No. Technically, for his purposes of wielding power, it’s irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what happens to Russia after he dies, he can still pursue any objective financially or politically he desires without caring who takes on the mantle after him, as long as that transference of power occurs after he is off the scene. The danger of a coup d’état grows in the event of a weakened seat of power without a clear successor.
However, if Putin wished to have his power resonate beyond his mortal life, as the attractive allure of immortality often resounds within the hearts of those in power, he would need to ascend onto a plane of deification within his political system by taking on the role of a symbol. This is very possible, and he may have already begun expressing his intentions in such a cultivation — i.e.“Novorossiya” though that ‘project’ has been halted officially. In order to achieve the transformation required to truly preserve his “New Russia” after his death, he would essentially need to replace Lenin as the principal occupant of the Russian political Pantheon in the hearts and minds of the Russian people and State.
Nevertheless, as it is, his consolidations of political power have only further solidified his position of power in his Cult Of Personality system, but not begun to bridge the gap into a pan-generational Concept As Deity state. If this trajectory continues, in 20 or so years (or sooner) upon his death, the absence of a line of inheritance will result in a massive power vacuum as the State attempts to revert itself back to its former ideological center, if the memory of the ‘old’ survives, having been fractured so for multiple decades. Rivals will vie to grab the reins of power, and the suddenly malleable and directionless political framework will falter and likely fall into chaos. Russia’s influence and progress both domestic and foreign will be severely crippled. Unless a shrewd states-person quickly seizes control, the threads Putin has carefully woven will untangle in a fraction of the time it took to compose.
